Amid escalating global uncertainties and growing U.S. government debt levels, HSBC has revised its gold price forecasts upwards for both 2025 and 2026, citing a stronger demand for safe-haven assets.
The bank now expects the average gold price for 2025 to reach $3,215 per ounce, up from its previous estimate of $3,015. For 2026, HSBC forecasts an average of $3,125, compared to the earlier projection of $2,915.
According to the bank’s outlook, gold prices are likely to trade within a wide range of $3,100 to $3,600 per ounce through the end of 2025, potentially closing the year at around $3,175.
These upward revisions come amid continued weakness in the U.S. dollar, increased risk aversion in global markets, and persistent uncertainty surrounding upcoming geopolitical events in July, all of which have enhanced gold’s appeal among investors.
At the same time, market expectations point toward two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, totaling 50 basis points, with the first anticipated in September. Lower interest rates tend to bolster gold’s attractiveness, as the metal does not yield interest and becomes more competitive during periods of declining real yields.
Gold continues to serve as a traditional hedge in times of economic and political instability, maintaining its role as a reliable store of value when confidence in other asset classes wavers.
