What’s holding gold back?
- The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at 4.25–4.50% for the fourth straight meeting, revising its dot‑plot outlook upward by projecting rate targets for 2026 and 2027
- In a tariff‑driven inflation warning, US President Trump hinted at new US tariffs, prompting the Fed to retain a hawkish stance, which weighs on non‑yielding gold.
Support from 20‑day EMA & risk‑off flows
- Gold remains anchored by its 20‑day exponential moving average, currently around $3,350
- Geopolitical risk continues to underpin the metal, as escalating tensions in the Middle East, sparked by US deliberations over a possible strike on Iran, keep safe‑haven demand alive
What’s happening with gold prices right now?
- Today, spot gold went down a little to about $3,364 per ounce
- Gold futures in the US also dropped slightly to around $3,370 per ounce.
- This small fall happened after gold went up about 1% earlier this week because of tension in the Middle East
Gold is showing a pattern called an Ascending Triangle on the daily chart, which usually means the price is getting ready to move strongly in one direction. Right now, gold is facing resistance near $3,500, a level it last touched in April. At the same time, it’s getting steady support from a rising trendline that started around $2,957 in early April.The 20-day moving average, which is around $3,350, is also helping to keep gold’s price steady. A key indicator called the RSI is just below 60. If it rises above 60, it might mean gold is ready to go up again.
If the price breaks above $3,500, it might quickly rise to $3,550 or even $3,600. But if it falls, the first strong support is at $3,245, then $3,200, and finally $3,121.
Outlook for traders
- Bullish break: If gold price goes clearly above $3,500, it could keep rising to $3,550 or even $3,600.
- Bearish risk: If gold falls below $3,245, it could drop further to $3,200, and then possibly to $3,121.
What to watch today
- US–Iran developments: Reports suggest senior US officials are readying strike options. President Trump’s comment, “I may do it. I may not do it.”, on Iranian nuclear facilities adds fresh uncertainty.
- Fed commentary: The revised dot‑plot projection reinforces a higher‑for‑longer rate outlook, strengthening the dollar and capping gold momentum.
Hovering between $3,350 and $3,400, gold prices are hinged on global tensions and the charts. Any movement breaking this price range will indicate a clearer trend in gold prices for the coming months. Any pace in the movement of prices is unexpected till then.
