Markets are now keenly watching Friday’s release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — which could provide crucial clues on when a rate cut might happen.
What is the gold price today?
As of this morning:
- Spot gold is trading at $3,336.02 per ounce, up 0.1% on the day.
- U.S. gold futures (COMEX) are hovering around $3,349.30 per ounce, showing mild intraday gains.
While the gains are modest, gold remains up more than 42% over the past month—one of the metal’s best runs in recent memory.
Why is gold price under pressure despite a weaker dollar?
Gold is often seen as a safe haven when the US Dollar weakens, but that wasn’t the case on Thursday. While the USD continued to decline, gold struggled to maintain gains as risk-on sentiment dominated market flows. The XAU/USD pair swung between its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, showing signs of consolidation and investor indecision. Traders appear to be chasing momentum in equities rather than seeking safety in gold. The S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq all notched fresh record highs this week, diverting attention away from the precious metal.
How is the Trump-Powell feud affecting gold and the Fed’s next move?
The debate around interest rate cuts intensified this week after President Trump openly criticized Fed Chair Powell during the NATO summit. Trump didn’t mince words, saying, “He is going out, fortunately. I think he is terrible.” His comments reflect growing political pressure on the Fed to act swiftly on rate cuts.
Powell, however, struck a cautious tone during his two-day semiannual testimony to Congress, maintaining that interest rates will remain at 4.25%–4.50% for now. He noted that while inflation is nearing the Fed’s 2% target, other risks — like tariffs and global uncertainties — must be carefully monitored before making any moves.
This tug-of-war between fiscal and monetary authorities has left gold in a holding pattern. Traders are reluctant to take bold positions in gold until there’s more clarity on the Fed’s direction.
Is economic data pointing to trouble ahead for the US economy?
Recent reports hint that the US economy might be hitting some bumps. On Tuesday, the US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index showed signs of softening. Then on Wednesday, New Home Sales numbers came in below expectations, suggesting a cooling housing market.
The CME FedWatch Tool now shows a 68% chance of a 25 basis-point rate cut in September, with a 21.3% chance of a larger 50 basis-point cut. These expectations are keeping gold investors on edge. Without a strong catalyst, gold may struggle to retest its April high of $3,500.
What key data could shake gold next?
All eyes are now on two big data drops:
- Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index due Friday.
- Revised U.S. GDP data, which could shape the Fed’s path forward.
Any sign that inflation is cooling could fast-track rate cuts—sending gold higher. But if inflation surprises to the upside, the Fed may stay cautious, capping gold’s rally.
What role is geopolitics playing in gold’s recent decline?
While macroeconomic trends are driving most of the action, geopolitical tensions have temporarily eased. The Israel-Iran ceasefire has held for three straight days, helping to reduce global fears and further cooling demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
But experts warn that the calm may be short-lived. Any new flare-up could quickly push gold prices higher again. For now, though, the absence of immediate conflict is leaving gold exposed to economic and policy developments.
Gold price predictions: Where is gold headed next?
Here’s what analysts and forecasting models are saying:
| Source | Prediction | Timeline |
| Reuters Poll | Avg $3,065 | 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Up to $3,300 | End-2025 |
| J.P. Morgan | $3,675 → $4,000 | Q4 2025 → Q2 2026 |
| UBS / Bank of America | $3,500+ | Medium-term |
| CoinCodex | Avg $3,570, Peak $4,148 | Dec 2025 |
| Citigroup (bearish) | Drop to $2,500–2,700 | End-2026 |
| AI/Crowd Forecasts | Avg $3,070, AI upper range $3,026 | Dec 2025 |
While most forecasts remain bullish, especially from institutions like J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs, some caution is creeping in. If inflation data comes in stronger and rate cuts are delayed, gold could face a near-term pullback toward $2,700.
What are the key technical levels gold traders are watching?
From a chart perspective, XAU/USD is in a tight range, stuck between the 50-day SMA at $3,325 and the 20-day SMA at $3,356. These moving averages are acting as near-term support and resistance zones.
- Immediate resistance lies at $3,356, followed by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $3,371.
- Support levels include the 38.2% Fib at $3,292 and the 50% Fib at $3,228.
- The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits near 50, signaling a neutral market.
A break above $3,371 could see gold test the $3,400–$3,450 zone. On the flip side, a drop below $3,325 could expose gold to deeper losses, especially if Friday’s PCE data comes in strong.
What could change the direction of gold prices next?
All eyes are now on Friday’s PCE inflation data, which is likely to be the biggest driver for gold in the short term. A softer-than-expected reading could revive hopes for a faster Fed rate cut, potentially boosting demand for gold.
Until then, gold may continue to trade sideways as markets juggle conflicting signals: a weakening dollar, stock market euphoria, political tension, and economic uncertainty.
FAQs:
Q1: Why is gold price falling despite a weak dollar?
Gold is dropping as investors prefer riskier assets like US stocks over safe-haven gold.
Q2: How does Trump vs Powell tension affect gold prices?
Trump’s push for rate cuts vs Powell’s caution adds uncertainty, keeping gold range-bound.
