$3,310.48 Support and 50-Day SMA Now Key Battleground
Price action is pressing against $3,310.48, a key horizontal support that aligns closely with the 50-day simple moving average at $3,314.40. This zone is a confluence of trend and structure—break it, and gold could fall toward $3,280.00 or even $3,228.38. But if bulls hold the line, it would mark a successful higher low and could reset the push toward $3,435.06 and $3,451.53.
This technical tension mirrors the market’s uncertainty about the Fed’s next move. Traders are waiting for confirmation—either a breakdown confirming near-term weakness or a bounce that keeps the broader uptrend intact.
Fed’s “Prepared to Adjust” Line Adds Fuel to Medium-Term Bull Case
While short-term upside is capped by high real interest rates, the Fed’s increasingly data-dependent tone has opened the door to a more accommodative stance if needed. The line that the Committee is “prepared to adjust” policy if risks emerge is a subtle pivot—particularly if upcoming inflation or employment data weakens.
The Fed is also continuing quantitative tightening at a cautious pace, reducing Treasuries and MBS holdings without disrupting liquidity. This careful approach helps sustain financial conditions favorable to gold and other alternative assets.
Long-Term Outlook: Asymmetric Risk Profile Supports Gold Accumulation
Looking 6–18 months out, the case for gold remains strong. The Fed’s balancing act between inflation control and growth support creates a scenario where any economic weakening—whether from labor market stress, softer consumer demand, or credit risks—could fast-track rate cuts. In that case, gold could break back above $3,500.00 and enter a new leg higher.
Persistent geopolitical tensions, fiscal risks, and steady central bank demand for gold further reinforce the metal’s long-term appeal.
